报告题目：Modelling and transmission dynamics for forecasting of West Nile virus cases

报告人：Huaiping Zhu, York University

报告时间：11月17日（周四） 上午8：30 – 9：30

腾讯会议：650-191-137

报告摘要：West Nile virus was first introduced to Canada in 2002, it has caused more than 2000 human deaths and death of millions of avian birds in North America. I will start with an introduction and review of compartmental models for the transmission of West Nile virus, and present the threshold dynamics for the risk assessment and for forecasting of West Nile cases, which will lay the groundwork for predictive models of West Nile virus cases. In reality, it is the weather conditions, such as daily average temperature and precipitation, affect not only the abundance and the biting behavior of vector mosquitoes, but also determine the outbreak and spread of West Nile virus. I will then introduce a weather-driven statistical model for the abundance of Culex mosquitoes, and incorporating both temperature and precipitation in a compartmental model for the transmission of West Nile virus among mosquitoes, birds, and humans, we develop a predictive model for weekly forecasting of West Nile virus risk in Peel Region, Ontario Canada. With the weekly surveillance data for West Nile virus in Peel Region, we numerically simulate and explore how different weather conditions affect the transmission of the virus in the area. Such a hybrid modeling approach allows us to develop the forecasting tools for West Nile virus and other mosquito-borne diseases. I will end the talk by presenting some challenging problems of forecasting West Nile virus cases.

报告人简介：Dr. Huaiping Zhu, Professor and York Research Chair in Applied Mathematics of York University. His research fields include dynamical systems and differential equations; bifurcation theory and applications; Hilbert’s sixteenth problem; mathematical ecology and epidemiology;climate change modelling and impact studies; and developing mathematical models, theories, methodologies and tools for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. He is the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modeling (CCDM), Director of the Canadian NSERC One Health Modeling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI), and Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS) at York University. His research has been supported by NSERC, CIHR, CFI, PHAC and ministries of Ontario.